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Why catch-up sizing wrecks a compounding model
Sizing up to erase a gap to the projected curve is martingale dressed as planning. Keep size tied to actual balance so one hard day does not rewrite the process.
26 July 2026
The trap
You are behind the model. The next trade looks like a chance to catch up if you risk more. That feeling is common. It is also how compounding plans die.
Catch-up sizing treats the projected line as a debt you must repay today. The plan never asked for that.
Why the math turns against you
Allocation times target assumes a controlled slice of equity. Inflating size after a loss raises the chance the hole gets deeper on the next miss.
Even a win that closes the gap teaches the wrong habit: that emotion, not the account plan, sets risk.
What to do instead
Close the day honestly. Keep the next size on actual balance and the model you already chose. Accept that actual can trail projection for a stretch.
If catch-up sizing is the plan, the plan already failed. Reset risk to the rule you can repeat on a calm day.
How Klaris holds the line
Klaris sizes from actual balance. It does not suggest revenge size or martingale to chase the curve.
Projected vs actual stays visible so you can see the gap without being nudged to erase it in one trade.
Close the day. Stay on the model.
Start with the model